CLIMA
Score Calculation Methodology
Climate-Linked Infrastructure & Mortgage Analytics
Technical Documentation for Investors & Stakeholders
Overall CLIMA Score Formula
CLIMA Score = (A × 30%) + (B × 20%) + (C × 20%) + (D × 15%) + (E × 15%)
Key Principle: Higher score = Safer (lower climate risk). All factors normalized to 0-10 scale.
Five Scoring Factors
A. Climate Risk Progression 30%
Historical disasters (15%) + Climate projections (85%). Uses FEMA data + NOAA/NASA SSP scenarios.
B. Relief Allocations per Capita 20%
FEMA Public Assistance funding per capita. Higher relief = more disaster history = lower score.
C. Municipal Fiscal Stress 20%
BLS unemployment (50%) + FRED bonds (25%) + Census finances (25%). Lower stress = higher score.
D. Personal Finance Resilience 15%
Census ACS: Income (40%), Value-to-Income (30%), Housing burden (30%). Better finances = higher score.
E. Insurance Availability 15%
Census ACS income/home value ratio. More affordable = higher score.
Score Interpretation
| Score Range |
Grade |
Risk Level |
Description |
| 9.0-10.0 |
A+ |
Minimal Risk |
Excellent climate resilience |
| 7.0-8.9 |
A |
Low Risk |
Low climate-linked mortgage risk |
| 5.0-6.9 |
B |
Moderate Risk |
Standard underwriting appropriate |
| 3.0-4.9 |
C |
Elevated Risk |
Consider pricing adjustments |
| 0.0-2.9 |
D/F |
High Risk |
Very high risk - consider declining |
Data Sources (All Real, Public Data)
FEMA OpenFEMA API — Disaster declarations (1953-2024) and Public Assistance funding
U.S. Census Bureau ACS — Income, home values, housing costs, demographics (5-year estimates)
Bureau of Labor Statistics — Unemployment rates via LAUS (Local Area Unemployment Statistics)
FRED (Federal Reserve) — Municipal bond spreads, Treasury yields, fiscal indicators
NOAA/NASA Climate Projections — SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for flood, wildfire, heat, wind
NFIP Claims Data — Flood loss severity validation (30.3% average on 717 claims)
Model Validation Performance
★
0.842 Default Prediction AUC — Exceeds 0.80 industry standard
0.946 Disaster Prediction AUC — Exceeds 0.80 by 18%
★
Both models validated — 145,452 observations and 68,485 FEMA disasters, 68,485 disasters, forward-looking validation
★
68,485 disasters validated — 71-year backtest (1953-2024), 13x larger than typical studies
★
70% loss reduction — Approved segment has 70% fewer major disasters than rejected segment
★
No look-ahead bias — All predictions use only past data, proper time-series validation
Key Design Principles
Future-focused — 85% weight on climate projections for 30-year mortgage commitments
Transparent — All data sources are public and reproducible, no black-box models
Fair lending aligned — Geographic factors only, no demographic discrimination (ECOA)
Production ready — Real-time API integration with authoritative sources
Claims & Validation
Key claims are traceable to: DATA_SOURCES.md, REPRODUCIBILITY.md, EXTERNAL_TECH_AUDIT_FORMULAS_AND_MODELS.md, and backtest/elite_constants.py. Regulatory: inputs for CECL/Basel III; aligned with OCC/FDIC/Fed climate risk guidance (not certified).
CLIMA — Climate-Linked Infrastructure & Mortgage Analytics
For more information, visit our technical documentation or contact us for API access.